Dear CSA Reader,
How much longer can this rally go on? That’s the biggest question that keeps me up at night.
In the meantime, I think this latest swing higher is over with. So I want you to immediately sell your GLD December 92 call option (GLD LN) and lock-in a 46% gain.
I also want you to immediately sell your shares of Flotek Inc. (NYSE:FTK). We’re doing this to limit any further losses.
Flotek management found it appropriate to make a new share offering, doubling shares from 40 million to 80 million. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Flotek’s price collapse by 50% in the next few weeks, especially if the broader market is dropping.
To counter this expected market drop, let’s go long volatility by buying the VIX 24 December Call Option (VIX LA) for no more than 3.70 per contract (currently at 3.40). If the sell-off intensifies over the next few days, then we should easily make 100% gains on this.
Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, let me explain why I think we’re in store for a short-term drop in the market.
As you can see, the buying is getting tired now that the Dow is overbought and at the top of its trend channel.
Something else I’ve paid attention to is the volume on the indexes. And right now volume is shouting “danger!” at the top of its nonexistent lungs.
The next chart comes courtesy of Afraid to Trade.com
Notice how volume has declined throughout the most recent rally. This is one of the biggest bear signals I’ve seen in some time.
Be aware, though, that this sell-off is in the short-term. I’d be shocked if the indexes sold off more than 5% over the next week or two. Over the longer-term, I’m still seeing higher-highs coupled with higher-lows.
Unless we see a significant break under the 50-day moving average on all three indexes, there is a strong possibility that the bull run continues into December or even January.
After all, we’re getting awfully close to that Christmas rally. And unlike last year, no one seems to be talking about it today (hopefully I didn’t open the floodgates). So perhaps we’ll actually get a solid Christmas rally this time around.
Until next week,
Charles Delvalle
Investment Director,
Crisis Strategy Alert
Payout Trader Credit Spread Alert
***Please place these orders IMMEDIATELY***
***Do NOT Place Market Orders***
Sell-to-open the BHP 67.50 November Put option (BHPWT) for no less than $0.58 per contract (currently trading at $0.65).
Buy-to-open the BHP 65 November Put option (BHPWM) for no more than $0.40 per contract (currently trading at $0.30).
Your total net credit should be $0.35 for a return of about 16%.
If the option prices are out of range and you do not get filled today, then wait for the next Payout Play.
Trade Drivers
I’ve been following BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) for some time.
And if there’s one thing to recognize, it’s a big opportunity.
Recently, BHP found support around its 50-day moving average, which doubled as the bottom of its long-term trend line (in blue).
After finding support, BHP rocketed higher, breaking above its 20-day moving average. Not only that, but it is coming out of deeply oversold territory, signaling that more buying is on the way.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see BHP push above its previous 52-week high of $74.98 a share.
I’ll keep an eye out on this position as we may have to close-out early next week if things start turning south. By that time there will be so little time value left that this option should be nearly worthless.
Take care,
Charles
Dear CSA Reader,
Imagine owning shares of Coca-Cola in 1970…
After splits and reinvesting dividends, a $500 investment in Coca-Cola back in 1970 would have yielded $45,315.20 cents today.
That’s 89 times your money in 39 years.
This is how real money is made. But you can’t think in days or months if you plan on making it. You have to think years… decades.
So what if I could introduce you to a company which Jim and I both know is a household staple of millions of people across the world?
Really, the opportunity is bigger than Coca Cola was back in 1970. You don’t have to drink Coke. But you DO have to eat.
In Brazil, 187 million people (98% of the population) are exposed to this company’s products just by walking into the grocery store. And over 1 in 4 people there have its products stuffed inside their refrigerator.
This company also sells its products to another 110 countries across the world. That’s where 45% of its revenues come from. But again, I’m not talking about America. This company is big in the Middle East and in Europe.
It doesn’t matter if Brazilians are buying milk… chicken… pork… beef… or frozen pizza. This company is exposed to all aspects of Brazilian food production. In fact it’s the biggest.
Baron’s even said that this company offered “a tantalizing investment opportunity”
What I have for you today is a company that Brazilian consumers already love and know, and that will expand drastically as the Brazilian middle class explodes.
Upcoming Plays: Brasil Foods (NYSE:PDA)
Brasil Foods is one of the largest meat processing companies in the world, with 42 factories and 120,000 workers. It’s also Brazil’s largest food producer.
When American’s think of food they think of brands like Dole, General Mills, and Hershey’s.
In Brazil though, people think of Perdigao, Cotoches, and Batavo, three of Brasil Foods five different brands.
The fact that this company doesn’t rely on American consumers is one of its biggest strengths. In America the unemployment rate should keep rising until next year. At the same time, more people will lose their homes, cars, and see their credit lines slashed.
The only way supermarkets can compete is by slashing prices and promoting their own brands. It would be the worst possible environment for Brasil foods.
Instead, PDA has to worry about increasing demand and increasing profits for the products they sell. The big trends are on their side, especially in Brazil. Brazilians went through 14 years of hyperinflation and are just now getting used to steady prices.
Not only that, but Brazilians are now being exposed to credit. Will Landers, who manages $8 billion of Latin American stocks at BlackRock Inc said “People never before thought they had access to credit. Now they’re talking about, ‘I have a credit card, a payroll loan, a car loan.’
In September alone, sales of new cars rose 20%. And according to the Banco Central Do Brazil in 2007 there were 118 million credit cards, up from 44 million in 2003.
Just take a look at how well PDA’s business has done thanks to the expansion of credit in Brazil…
Brasil Foods’ Sales are Exploding
Source: Brasil Foods 2008 Annual Presentation
To be sure, business has slowed down since the start of the global downturn. You see, PDA was already shipping less pork and beef in 2007, but higher prices more than made up for that.
But 2008 was a little different. Prices plunged alongside demand, meaning PDA had to cut more production and lower margins.
Thankfully, it appears that the worst is behind PDA. Net margins have increased from 0.7% in the first half of the year to 4.8% today. And as prices move higher, margins should approach 7-8%. That means more profits and more growth.
You see, this isn’t GM or some bloated bureaucratic company that moves slow. This is a lean, mean, production machine that’s main purpose is to grow and make more profits. PDA doesn’t have to worry about an invasive union getting in the way of cost cutting. It just has to recognize the risks out there and respond to them. And that’s exactly what it did in spades.
More importantly, as consumers in Brazil - 55% of PDA’s revenues - make more money, they’ll demand more food. Just take a look at the growth PDA has seen in dairy products like powdered milk…
Source: Brasil Foods Q2 2009 PresentationReuters also estimates that the Food and Drink sector in Brazil will grow from $161.54bn in 2008 to $253.66bn by 2013.
Growth like that is sure to supercharge Brazil’s largest food producer, don’t you think?
That’s why I recommend buying shares of Brasil Foods (NYSE:PDA) today.
Portfolio Update
Our GLD December 92 call (GLD LN) has performed admirably as gold hits new record highs. We’re up 37% so far. At this moment we’d like to thank India for helping to make us all a little wealthier.
If you were also into some of the gold stocks James recommended in Strategic Investment (which you also receive) then you’d also be up 27% on the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) and a whopping 108% on Witwatersrand Consol Gold (Toronto: WGR).
Jim and I both believe that there is more upside to gold left in the near term. So we’re going to hold onto the options and target 50% gains.
One position that hasn’t done so well is our bet on natural gas with Flotek Inc. (NYSE:FTK) . As of this writing, we’re down 17%.
Flotek has proved to be quite the roller coaster. But our original reason for getting into this company has not changed. Jim and I still believe that a colder than expected winter will help demand for natural gas and boost prices.
The fact that Flotek has such a high short-interest ratio (18% of float) means that it would take 9.6 days of buying in order for everyone who is short to close out their position
So really, what we want is for rising natural gas prices to trigger a short squeeze on FTK. We’ll know it’s happening once we see prices spiking higher alongside higher than normal volume.
As always, i’ll keep my eyes on it and let you know what’s happening.
Until next week,
Charles Delvalle
Co-editor
Crisis Strategy Alert
Dear Payout Trader,
In my heart, I’ve been a bear since March 2009 – when the rally started.
I thought that eventually the light would shine on how broke and bankrupt our entire financial system is and we would see another leg down.
But there’s only so long one can fight the tape for…
So in April I began riding the market higher and it worked. In the end, the point of investing isn’t so you can brag to your friends about how you timed something right. And it isn’t for the rush of winning.
It’s about making money, pure and simple.
The Macro View
The market is at an important juncture. I’ll explain it by means of the Dow Jones. It’s either going to soar above 10,000 over the next two weeks or it’s going to fall next week.
There’s no other outcome in my opinion. We’ve been sitting at the 10,000 juncture for too long.
The market is looking weak in the knees… but not 100% weak.
All three indexes maintained support at their respective 50-day moving averages. And yesterday, they pushed above their 20-days in remarkable fashion.
At first glance, you probably get the impression that the market will continue moving higher. That’s where my bias is at least.
Remember, I’m a bear on the economy right now. But a market that’s gone up 60% in nine months doesn’t really fit that picture.
I’m still cautious, though. I’ve waited for this weeks slew of economic reports to come out before making any trades. And so far it’s helped us avoid the roller coaster like volatility we’ve seen.
Just this morning the jobs report came out and showed unemployment at 10.2%. The market reacted as one would expect, by trading down.
But so far, it hasn’t traded down much.
And I’m not about to fight the tape.
The Credit Spread Outlook
We’re ripe with opportunities for credit spreads. I’m just looking for follow through before issuing any trades.
Right now I have targets on three …
Here are the notes I jotted down. Be aware, these aren’t recommendations. This is just my watch list.
- BHP. Bounced off its 50-day and lifting from oversold territory. $67.82. Could sell the 65 put and buy the 60 put.
- IBM. Low volatility. Possible bottoming formation at its 50-day. Lifting from oversold. $123.10. Could sell the 120 put and buy the 115 put.
- GOOG. Solid uptrend, riding high on its 20-day moving average. Lifting from nearly oversold. $548.65. Could sell the 520 put and buy the 510 put.
For these trades to be successful we need to see the market do pretty decently today.
That means keeping any loss small or even ending in the green.
If this happens, you’ll see a credit spread recommendation on Monday or Tuesday at latest.
Stay tuned,
Charles Delvalle
Editor,
Payout Trader
You Have Been Deceived
About Global Warming
Time to Implement
The Strategic
“Little Ice Age Portfolio”
The chill is on: Unseasonably cold air will envelop much of the eastern half of the nation both Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures averaging anywhere from 10 to 30 degrees below normal. High temperatures will reach only the 40s and 50s across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic states each day.
-Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
“Congress has been badly misinformed about the so-called science that supports the claim that increasing CO2 levels will bring about catastrophic climate change…The idea that Congress can stop climate change would be just hilarious if the actions they propose were not so damaging to the American people and even more [damaging] to the poorer people of the world,”
- Dr. William Happer,
Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Not since Chicken Little warned that the sky is falling has there been more baseless geophysical hysteria than the current furor over “Global Warming.”
If you remember that cautionary childhood tale, you’ll recall that its moral comes in two parts. Firstly, it is a warning not to believe everything you hear. The secondary moral is even more critical in current circumstances. When you have an atmosphere of hysteria, you need to be particularly alert, lest some clever fellow like Foxy Loxy turn the hysteria surrounding the imagined crisis to his own ends.
In case you’ve forgotten the gory details, Foxy Loxy cashed in “the sky is falling” hysteria, by eating its infatuated supporters, Henny Penny, Cocky Lockey and Goosey Loosey.
While you are not about to be eaten, you are vulnerable to one of history’s great power and money grabs now being orchestrated in the name of fighting “Global Warming.”
In a matter of weeks, Foxy Loxy will open the Copenhagen Conference with the objective of ramming through a “Climate Change Treaty” that will drastically reduce your standard of living while handing hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars to Al Gore.
Nah. Don’t believe it?
I realize that I just warned you not to believe everything you hear. So I expect you to be skeptical when I tell you that Al Gore is poised to make a fortune out of the global warming hysteria that makes AIG bonus payments seem like pocket change.
Believe me, however. Gore’s propaganda for Global Warming is more than just hot air. It involves a grab for billions, even trillions of cold cash.
Here is a brief outline of the facts:
“Blood and Gore”
Al Gore and David Blood at a GIM Press Conference
As a U.S. Senator, then as Vice President of the United States, Al Gore helped funnel billions of tax dollars into research supporting his pet project for combating “global warming.“
After he left office, in 2004, Al Gore co-founded Generation Investment Management (GIM), a hedge fund devoted to “green” investments.
Former Goldman Sachs golden boy David Blood joined Al at GIM.
Together, “Blood and Gore,” as they like to call themselves, called on all their wealthy friends in Washington, Wall Street and Hollywood and raised $5 billion.
With $5 billion of private capital in hand, and billions more in taxpayer funds being dispensed to support Climate Change “alarmism” every year, the groundwork was in place for what will one day be seen as the biggest ‘rip off” in history.
An Inconvenient Truth
Once the money was raised, Al went to Hollywood with an idea for a movie.
In the lavish hotels of Beverly Hills, he pitched his idea for a documentary about global warming to his liberal friends.
Al Gore’s Oscar Nominated Movie
An Inconvenient Truth
By December 2004, the film started shooting. An Inconvenient Truth was finally released in 2006.
Al then traveled the world promoting the movie with the best-financed promotion of intellectual hysteria in history.
He pushed hard the idea that an “end of the world/the sky is falling” type scenario will occur if governments didn’t act immediately to drastically curtail carbon emissions.
Gore booked pricey speaking engagements to show off his charts and graphs… quoted “experts”… and he asked philosophers and religious leaders to save the planet from global warming.
But he said nothing about how he and his business partners were set to profit handsomely off his global warming scam.
Al was greeted with huge crowds the world over.
His film won two Oscars. And he was given the Nobel Prize for his scare tactics.
The Media Falls
Hook, Line and Sinker
Don’t Let Al Brain Wash You
Rather than debate global warming, the mainstream media parroted every word out of Al’s mouth and completely ignored his conflicts of interest. And that wasn’t all they ignored.
They totally dismissed the arguments of scientists and other critics who disputed the contention that higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon were necessarily the cause of marginally warmer temperatures experienced in the last quarter of the 20th century.
Think about it. The underlying proposition of the Global Warming hysteria is that scientists can forecast global temperatures a century or more from now to an accuracy of 1/10th of a degree Celsius. How can they do that when they can’t forecast temperatures to within an accuracy of 5 degrees five days from now?
How Al Gore made $100 million from a
Flawed Differential Equation, And other
Adventures in Global Warming . . .
The obvious mathematical implausibility of long-term climate forecasts from tiny atmospheric changes should have invited a lot of rigorous investigation of “the sky is falling” themes of the warm-mongers. But apparently, it didn’t. Until recently.
You’ve heard the old adage, “he who pays the piper calls the tune.” By and large, the government was paying the piper, and it was made clear early on that the basis for receiving large grants, (now running at about $5 billion a year), was to underscore alarms about a climate calamity.
H.L. Mencken explained the dynamic reasons for this before Al Gore was born. “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
Gore himself has admitted that he thinks it is justified to lie in the service of convincing people that there is a Global Warming crisis. Of course, he stated his confession more diplomatically or perhaps in a more mealy mouthed way, as support for “an over-representation of factual presentation on how dangerous it is.” Gore stated, (Grist, May 9, 2006)…
“Nobody is interested in solutions if they don’t think there’s a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are… “
Of course, it is easy for Gore to be enthusiastic about his solutions. They mean billions for him.
If you’re like most people, you probably don’t spend much time parsing differential equations. Truth be told, not even the Rev. Al Gore, Nobel Prize-winner that he is, can follow their intricacies. But as detailed below, that hasn’t stopped him from pocketing a cool $100 million from a flawed differential equation worked out in 1922 by the “step father of global warming,” physicist Arthur Milne.
Athur Milne, the step father of global warming
In a better world, it would not matter to you whether a physicist who has been dead for almost 70 years incorporated a blatantly unrealistic assumption into a differential equation about the atmosphere. In this case, it does matter because climatologists are still using Milne’s flawed equation purportedly to prove that carbon dioxide emissions, along with other “greenhouse” gases will turn the earth into a furnace.
Milne’s calculations of the behavior of atmospheric gases included the assumption that atmospheres are infinitely dense. Even as a simplification that is more than a little over the top.
In fairness to Milne, he was by no means a “warm-monger” like Gore. Milne’s research into radiative equilibrium and the structure of atmospheres was part of a larger argument he had with Einstein over the General Theory of Relativity. Milne was not much interested in terrestrial atmospheres. His equations were focused on stellar atmospheres.
Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist and former researcher with NASA’s Langley Research Center, who was forced out because NASA did not like his objections to the Al Gore thesis of Global Warming, has a lot to say about the defects of Milne’s equations.
“Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations,” Miskolczi states.
So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite.
NASA refused to release his results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. “Money,” he says. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for atmosphere-monitoring projects, but all climate-change research. Currently, government funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.
Miskolczi resigned in protest, stating in his resignation letter, “Unfortunately my working relationship with my NASA supervisors eroded to a level that I am not able to tolerate. My idea of the freedom of science cannot coexist with the recent NASA practice of handling new climate change related scientific results.”
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT, agrees with Miskolczi’s view that Earth’s climate does not amplify “global warming” because of “greenhouse gases.” To the contrary. Lindzen declares, “Warming as may arise from increasing greenhouse gases will be indistinguishable from the fluctuations in climate that occur naturally from processes internal to the climate system itself.”
These conclusions are supported by research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last year from Steven Schwartz of Brookhaven National Labs, who gave statistical evidence that the Earth’s response to carbon dioxide was grossly overstated. It also helps to explain why current global climate models continually predict more warming than has actually been measured.
The equations also answer thorny problems raised by current theory, which doesn’t explain why “runaway” greenhouse warming hasn’t happened in the Earth’s past.
Of course, you can’t expect any of these qualifications to impinge on the enthusiasm of global warming cultists for imposing draconian limits on carbon emissions. Witness this nonsense:
350: The most important number in your life?
According to the environmentalist website, www.treehugger.com,”The most recent science tells us that unless we can reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, we will cause huge and irreversible damage to the earth. (See http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/04/350-most-important-number-lifetime-planet.php)
CO2 levels were 20 times higher than todays
I don’t suppose that anyone at www.treehugger.com could begin to explain why holding carbon dioxide at 350 parts per million, (a bare chemical trace) is crucial to preventing “huge and irreversible damage to the earth,” in light of the fact that scientific studies have shown that atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in past eras reached concentrations that were 20 times higher than the current concentration. If that did not cause “huge and irreversible damage to the earth” why would 95% lower concentrations pose any danger now?
That, of course, is merely a rhetorical question.
Your role in this scam is not to think too closely, but listen to what the media tell you.
Another of their recurring themes is the suggestion that the polar ice caps are melting. They say this over and over. Even when the evidence doesn’t support their conclusion.
Arctic Ice Cap Grows by 370,000 square miles
In fact, the government’s own surveys of Arctic Sea ice compiled by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, (NSIDC) show that it has grown by 370,000 square miles since 2007. That’s an area 1½ times the size of Texas.
The Ice Cap is growing in Eastern Antarctica
The Ice Cap is growing in Eastern Antarctica
The recovery of Arctic Ice in the last year alone was 220,000 sq miles yet the NSIDC claims that the scientists don’t consider this a recovery because they say the growing ice cover is thinner than it was at some points in the past. Right.
While the politicized U.S. agency pretends that Arctic Ice is getting thinner a team of Canadian and German scientists flying over the ice, measuring its thickness with the latest electromagnetic equipment, found exactly the opposite, that the ice was “thicker than expected”, as you would infer from the fact that the summer melt stopped 370,000 sq miles short of its 2007 low.
It turns out that ice is melting… in Western Antarctica. But at the same time, parts of Eastern Antarctica, four times the size of Western Antarctica, is cooling and gaining ice.
Note that forecasts and alarms about melting snow and disappearing glaciers in Antarctica have been equally distorted by the mass media.
Years ago, when NASA scientist Marco Tedesco found evidence of increased summer snow melt in Antarctica, NASA put out loud press releases highlighting this information, which seemed to buttress alarms of global warming.
But NASA has remained totally mum about more recent evidence reported by Tedesco and his co-author, Andrew Monaghan in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, reporting a record low snowmelt during the past austral summer.
According to space borne microwave observations for 1980–2009, the most recent Antarctic snowmelt during austral summer 2008–2009 is the lowest ever recorded. The Antarctic Ice cover is now 30% greater than its average over the past 30 years.
Compared to the remorseless dishonesty of claims about the melting of the polar Ice caps, the hyping of “green investment” by the major media is almost measured and responsible.
Major print media mentioned green investing 3,485 times in 2006 — a 70% increase from the previous two years.
And going green became a cultural movement…
Paris dimmed the lights on the Eiffel Tower… Solar investments became hot – even for oil companies… Evangelicals preached the gospel of “creation care.”
Princeton Physicist
Dr. William Happer
And scientists who disputed Al’s claims risked losing their jobs and having their reputations smeared. For example, Princeton physicist Dr. William Happer was fired by Al Gore as director of Energy Research for the US Department of Energy, after he testified before Congress in 1993 that the scientific data did not support widespread fears about the dangers of the ozone hole and global warming.
Then-Vice President Gore sent a message to other scientists by firing Happer.
Happer said, “I was told that science was not going to intrude on public policy.” When Happer was not prepared to alter his scientific conclusions to please Gore, “I had the privilege of being fired by Al Gore, since I refused to go along with his alarmism. I did not need the job that badly.”
Unhappily some other scientists feel they do “need the job,” and depend upon government grants to fund their research. Unlike them however, Happer was not muzzled by strong hints that government wants scientists to support concerns about carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To the contrary, Happer continues to sharply criticize global warming hysteria.
“I have spent a long research career studying physics that is closely related to the greenhouse effect,” said Happer. “Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science.”
Dr. Happer views climate change as a predominately natural process. “The earth’s climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.”
“Computer models used to generate frightening scenarios from increasing levels of carbon dioxide have scant credibility,” Happer concluded.
For more details on how scientists have been bribed and/or intimidated to support global warming hysteria, check this link for an analysis by Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at M. I. T.
Professor Lindzen explains how Al Gore and company have manipulated scientists with a combination of money and intimidation to create the impression of authority for ill-founded global warming claims. (This analysis was presented as a keynote address on March 8, 2009 at the second International Conference on Climate Change.)
In candid moments, even some of the government scientists who conjured up the scare stories admit that they were playing fast and loose with the facts in the service of political goals. Witness this comment from Stephen Schneider of the National Center for Atmospheric Research:
On the one hand, as scientists, we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but-which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but; human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.
- DISCOVER October, 1989, Page 47.
If you believed scare stories about global warming, you have been deceived.
Al has almost everyone scammed. Even conservative giant Newt Gingrich wrote a book demanding action on global warming.
Everyone was buying the hype.
Al’s plan was working perfectly….
Cap and Trade
Once Democrats seized control of the House, the Senate and the presidency, there seemed to be no stopping Al’s last act.
You see, while he’s been touring the world, promoting his movie and scaring everyone about the world heating up, his banker friends back in New York and London have been very busy…
… Busy buying up shares in green energy companies all over the world. And laying the groundwork to profit handsomely from carbon taxes.
And they‘ve already made a heap of money in the process.
Bloomberg reports that Al’s net worth jumped from $2 million to $100 million since he left office.
And According to Morningstar, GIM beat the global stock market return by 12.6%.
GIM’s “global sustainability fund” trounced the benchmark and most of its peers through 2008.
But Al biggest profits are still to come…
Al has been calling for a laundry list of heavy-handed regulations and carbon taxes since the Democrats came to power last year…
He wants a freeze on greenhouse gas emissions… a ban on new coal-fired power plants, tough new fuel efficiency standards for vehicles… carbon taxes… and timetables for reducing greenhouse gases.
But his favorite policy idea is cap and trade. And I’ll show you why in just a moment.
Cap and trade means Washington will place a “cap” on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that the economy can create.
If companies go over their allocated limit, they must buy a carbon credit from a company that emits less carbon than its allocated limit… or pay a hefty fine.
As I explain below, “Cap and Trade” will make Al Gore a billionaire.
The Problem is cap and trade is going to cost you and every other American wads of money.
According to the Heritage Foundation, the version of the “Cap and Trade” bill that passed the House of Representatives will reduce U.S. GDP by $161 billion dollars.
That is roughly $1,870 for every family of four in America.
In my view, however, this estimate is laughably conservative, as it more or less supposes that Al is right and the world will get warmer.
The costs of repressing carbon dioxide emissions will be much higher if climate takes a turn in the direction I expect and the earth gets colder. More on that below.
Remember also that Cap and Trade imposes an arbitrary and unnecessary burden of “carbon accounting” on every business in America. Not only will every business have to purchase “carbon offsets” through Al Gore’s carbon exchange, it will have to audit its carbon emissions to prove that panting employees have not discharged more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than they have paid for.
Another ghastly cost for the economy that is bound to be imposed along with Cap and Trade would be validation of the effort by scavenging plaintiffs’ attorneys to sue every industrial company and utility in the United States for damages associated with bad weather. Consider this from the Wall Street Journal’s Law Blog:
For years, leading plaintiffs’ lawyers have promised a legal assault on industrial America for contributing to global warming.
So far, the trial bar has had limited success. The hurdles to such suits are pretty obvious: How do you apportion fault and link particular plaintiffs’ injuries to the pollution emitted by a particular group of defendants?
Today, though, plaintiffs’ lawyers may be gloating a bit after a favorable ruling Friday from the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans, which is regarded as one of the more conservative circuit courts in the country. Here’s a link to the ruling.
The suit was brought by landowners in Mississippi, who claim that oil and coal companies emitted greenhouse gasses that contributed to global warming that, in turn, caused a rise in sea levels, adding to Hurricane Katrina’s ferocity.
Bay St. Louis, Miss after Hurricane Katrina
Source: Source: NASA
For a nice overview of the ruling, and its significance in the climate change battle, check out this blog post by J. Russell Jackson, a Skadden Arps partner who specializes in mass tort litigation. The post likens the Katrina plaintiffs’ claims, which set out a chain of causation, to the litigation equivalent of “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.”
The central question before the Fifth Circuit was whether the plaintiffs had standing, or whether they could demonstrate that their injuries were “fairly traceable” to the defendant’s actions. The defendants predictably assert that the link is “too attenuated.”
You can be sure that a lot more “attenuated” links will be asserted if Congress dignifies the far-fetched connection between carbon emissions and bad weather by passing Cap and Trade.
Cap and Trade will also increase your electricity bills by up to 90%. Maybe more, if utilities lose jury trials and have to pay Katrina damages to Mississippi farmers and every street vendor from New Orleans.
It could even cost you your job!
“The government is going to be directly responsible for the destruction of millions of jobs if the bill passed by the House becomes law – anywhere from a net loss of 0.5% of total jobs over the first 10 years, according to the liberal Brookings Institution, to 3 million by the year 2030, according to the industry-backed Coalition for Affordable American Energy.”
- U.S. News and World Report, July 6 2009
That may be bad for you, but it’s going to make Al Gore very wealthy indeed. It could turn him into the world’s first green energy billionaire.
Al Gore’s Trillion-Dollar Monopoly
So why has Al been such a huge promoter of Cap and Trade?
It’s simple.
He owns 10% of the exchange that will handle every single carbon credit traded. That’s why the “Cap and Trade” bill and the Copenhagen Conference are so important to culminate Gore’s scheme.
If laws and international treaties with the effect of law bind the whole world to trade carbon credits, Gore’s carbon exchange will be worth untold billions.
This market is going to be big.
Bigger than the New York Mercantile Exchange. Maybe even bigger than the NASDAQ.
According to the New York Times, carbon “will be the world’s biggest commodity market, and it could become the world’s biggest market overall.”
A report by New Energy Finance puts the value of the carbon market at $1 trillion a year by 2020.
But this market barely even exists today!
All the banking big boys want to get their greedy little fingers in this pie.
See, until a few years ago exchanges were private companies. But that’s all changed. Now they’re publically traded cash cows that get a small slice of money each time a trade is made.
And early investors in these exchanges can cash in big.
Take a look at the following chart of the CME group, the largest futures and options exchange in the world. Early investors could have bought shares for $41 dollars back in 2003.
Over the next five years, the exchange surged in price, giving investors 15 times their money.
I bet you wish you could have gotten in on these profits back then…
Who wouldn’t?
A $5,000 investment turned into $85,000, just like that.
But Al Gore’s “Money Machine” provides him an opportunity with even more upside potential.
Why?
Because right now membership of this new exchange is still voluntary. And today, only 470 companies currently participate.
But once cap and trade is signed into law, and re-enforced by a global treaty, every single company in the United States will have to join.
That means 470 companies will balloon to hundreds of thousands overnight…
It’s the law.
Since 2005, Al’s exchange has seen 2,825% growth in trading fees.
But that’s just the beginning. You can bet this number will jump by magnitudes more once the law is signed.
And Al Gore will laugh all the way to the bank as he sees his 10% stake soar 500%… 1,000%… maybe much more….
You see, this one exchange has cornered 99% of the carbon trading market. Competition is already virtually non-existent. And once the law is signed, it will have a government-sponsored monopoly. Perhaps even a monopoly enforced by international treaty.
Incredibly, hardly anyone in America has even heard of this exchange… yet.
In fact, like much else in the “Global Warming” hysteria, the mainstream media has barely covered it.
But that’s going to change soon.
You see, the cap-and-trade bill passed the House on July 24.
Now it’s up to the Senate to sign off on this bill. Will they?
Probably. My guess is that even if the Capitol were covered by glaciers that the Senators would find a way to burrow in and cast their vote against “global warming” as a show of obeisance to environmental lobby.
And, of course, we have our two Nobel Prize-winning campaigners against global warming leading the charge. Obama, because he wants to raise taxes, and Gore, because he would like to make billions out of this scam that he has so patiently orchestrated.
If they get their way, Al Gore will become a Green Economy billionaire, while you and other investors are carried away on a tide of red ink.
More on this in just a moment…
First, I want to tell you about something called the Maunder Minimum. It proves that carbon emissions have little to do with Global Warming.
You see, for all the hype, “Global warming” is hardly proven science.
Yes, the climate is changing. Climate is always changing. It has changed a lot over the past 10,000 years. It is a lot warmer now than it was at the end of the last Ice Age.
But it is also colder than it was 1,000 years ago. When the Vikings first went to Greenland, it actually was green. Believe it or not, they grew grain there. As late as 1300 AD, 3,000 farmers lived on 300 farms there. But then the climate got colder and eventually it became too cold for crops, starving the Nordic farming settlements out. By the end, the few remaining farmers were all dwarfs due to malnutrion.
Based on historic records and the indisputable evidence that the earth has been both much hotter and much colder in the past, there is no logical basis for the supposition that solar output is stable and constant from year-to-year.
To the contrary, there is evidence of considerable cyclical variability in the sun’s warmth. This explains much more about climate than do fluctuations in minute concentrations of so-called “greenhouse gases.”
If you ask yourself why the Ice Ages ended and why the Medieval Warm Period petered out in generations of cold, wet summers… you are on the path to understanding the dynamic of climate today. Not surprisingly, it‘s closely linked with variations in the energy output of the sun itself.
By the second quarter of the 17tth century astronomers were carefully observing the heavens. Among the key measurements they recorded were daily records of sunspots — the visible manifestations of magnetic storms on the sun. It turns out that sunspot activity is closely correlated with the sun’s total energy output.
When there are lots of sunspots, the sun produces more energy and temperatures on earth rise. When sunspots recede, the earth gets colder.
In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of almost total spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum. The sunspot drought began in 1645 and lasted until 1715.
During that time, also known as the “Little Ice Age,” temperatures plunged. It was the coldest period in the last millennium. Some of the best astronomers in history (for example, Haley, who discovered the famous comet) monitored the sun and failed to count more than a few dozen sunspots per year, compared to the usual thousands.
The summer of 1693 was so cold that millions of people in France and surrounding countries died of starvation. Equally, there were crop failures in Scotland in eight of the last nine years of the 17th century. That’s one of the reasons that Scotland joined England in the Treaty of Union to form the United Kingdom in 1707. The English growing season also shrank by five weeks in the late 17th century, but some grain could still be grown at lower altitudes whereas food production in Scotland was almost totally frozen out.
In Norway, total grain harvests late in the 17th century were only about 2/3rds of what they had been in the year 1300. The failure of Norwegian crops from 1680 into the 18th century was a prime reason for the great growth of merchant shipping there. Coastal farmers whose crops failed turned to selling their timber and to constructing ships in order to transport these timbers themselves.
If you’ve ever been on a cruise, chances are you sailed with a Norwegian crew who were sent to sea by the Maunder Minimum.
Meanwhile, Al Gore’s late 20th century crisis of “global warming” just so happened to coincide with an historic high in sunspot activity. What a coincidence.
But not to worry. It’s all over now. Sunspot activity has plunged. And Global warming seems to have vanished with it, except as a political cause.
We’ve just seen the largest temperature drop in recorded history
The period from January 2007-through September 2009, showed the sharpest drop in worldwide temperatures in recorded history. (Note that this flatly contradicts the forecasts of the CO2 warm-mongers. According to the “Global Warming” alarms, average global temperatures should have increased by 0.2 degrees Celsius.)
Temperatures are now back to what they were in the 1980’s, the Arctic icepack grew by 370,000 sq. miles in the past two years, and the Antarctic icepack continued to increase, as it has steadily done for the last several years. The average global temperature has been declining since 1998.
The moral of the story is that there is no need for you to fret about warming in your future. Even if you live on the coast, you won’t have to swim to work.
But you may need some thicker blankets.
Global warming is a hoax. Only the money that will be made out of this scam is real.
In all probability the world will continue getting colder in the immediate future. Finnish astrophysicist, Timo Niroma, a leading expert on sunspots, flatly declares that the era of “global warming” is over. He projects that the period between now and 2300 will be another “Little Ice Age” with a repeat of the MAUNDER MINIMUM. Brrr.
Niroma has closely studied sunspot cycle lengths since the 17th century, cycles that he correlates to the Jovian year. As the largest planet in the solar system, it would stand to reason that Jupiter’s orbit could create perturbations in the sun.
However Niroma doesn’t base his forecast of a colder climate solely on cyclical patterns. Among the reasons he emphasizes for his forecast of deepening cold — there is a clear trend towards diminishing solar output:
Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona report that the magnetic strength of the sunspots irrespective of their amount has linearly declined since at least 1990, suggesting that the spots could vanish in 2014 or 2015 if the trend continues.
Equally, Niroma points out that the brightness of the sun has dropped a whopping 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996. Current sunspot activity has plunged below the Dalton minimum associated with bitterly cold temperatures in the early years of the 19th century.
Already, this decline in solar output has been manifested in dramatically colder weather around the globe. In mid-October, 20 per cent of the entire United States was covered in snow, the greatest October snow cover the country had known for years. Note also, the snow cover unambiguously accelerates cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space.
Colder weather reports have not been confined to North America. Unseasonable snowfalls blanketed central Europe and the Alps.
Freak October snows caused traffic chaos in the North Island of New Zealand.
Up to 100 inches of snow hit Patagonia in a freak austral spring blizzard. Meteorologists recorded the lowest October temperatures ever in Germany, as the mercury dipped to a chilly -24.3 degrees Celsius in Bavaria’s Berchtesgaden national park.
And hundreds of Tibetan herdsmen had to be rescued when blizzards swept their summer pastures weeks early.
The furor over “Global Warming” is misplaced. As part of the research I did into the hidden factors that drive history for the books I wrote with Lord Rees-Mogg, I found evidence that climate fluctuations have destabilized civilizations throughout history. By far the most destabilizing climate changes are those that involve cooling of the earth.
A major reason for the collapse of the Roman Empire was colder weather that drove the barbarian German tribes south looking for food and warmth. “Global Warming” is just another name for good weather.
The Biggest Contrarian Play Ever—
Invest Now to Profit from the Coming Ice Age
If you want to invest alongside Al Gore and make a killing off of Cap and Trade, the best way to do that is by getting into the Climate Exchange (CLE.L) trading on the London Stock Exchange.
Not only does this exchange take care of the European carbon market, but it also has a huge interest in the Chicago Climate exchange.
What you really have to worry about is not Global Warming, but Global Cooling. The danger is when the weather gets colder, as it did in the 17th century, during the Maunder Minimum.
I have followed Dr. Timo Niroma’s work with interest. Obviously, I cannot independently confirm his forecast that we are now headed into either a “Little Ice Age” or even worse, a Big Ice Age. Unlike Al Gore, I do not pretend to be an expert on climate. But I do tend to recognize a contrarian investment opportunity when I see one.
With the whole world focused on a “global warming” treaty in Copenhagen in December, there has probably never been a more wide open field for spectacular returns on a contrarian play. That’s why I am recommending an “Ice Age Portfolio” now.
You might also want to pick up a pair of warm mittens.
Sincerely,
James Davidson
The Little Ice Age Portfolio:
How to Profit from the
Biggest Lie in History
No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits…. Climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.
- Christine Stewart,
Minister of the Environment of Canada,
1997-1999Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing — in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.
- Tim Wirth ,
while U.S. Senator, Colorado.Oh I takes de gospel whenever it’s pos’ble. But wid a grain of salt.
- Porgy and Bess
If you think the U.S. and Canadian economies have trouble now, wait until much of North America is buried again under glaciers a mile or two deep as it was in the last Ice Age.
Or better yet, don’t wait. If you want to stake out a claim to preserve prosperity for yourself and your family, act now to implement the biggest contrarian play ever, “The Little Ice Age Portfolio.”
I must preface my recommendations by underscoring the fact that I hope my forecast of a “Little Ice Age,” much less a full-blown Ice Age, proves to be wrong. If it comes to pass, it will not only surprise lots of gullible people, it will kill more people than World War II. Valid estimates suggest that one sixth of the world’s population lives at the threshold of starvation. A Little Ice Age could drastically reduce food supplies and put their survival in jeopardy.
If we do enter even a semblance of an Ice Age it will trigger the greatest social crisis in history, as even an apparently minor fall in average global temperatures could have a devastating effect on growing seasons in temperate latitudes. Millions and millions of people would die.
Experts believe that average global temperatures fell by 2 degrees Celsius or less in the “Little Ice Ages” associated with the Sporer minimum of 1400-1510 and the Maunder minimum of 1645-1715. This does not sound dramatic, but it was associated with a sharp drop in summer warmth in higher latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. A decline in global temperatures of a couple of degrees Celsius can precipitate an increase in food prices of 800%. A bankrupt world could not afford to feed itself if growing seasons dramatically contracted at higher elevations and higher latitudes.
Note that according to the Canadian Wheat Board, the growing season in Canada’s prairie has already fallen by 10 days in the past two years as “Global Warming” has petered out. But with all the “hot air” coming from Al Gore and company, you probably haven’t even noticed colder temperatures in recent years.
Even changes that fall well short of the advent of an Ice Age can have devastating economic consequences in a world accustomed to “temperature inflation.” The end of the medieval warming period (warmer than the present) was a matter of dire consequences in mainland Europe where crops failed year-after-year and millions of undernourished people perished through starvation and epidemics, culminating in the Black Death.
Note also that cold spells tend to have persistent cultural effects. The fact that Little Ice Age conditions eliminated the cultivation of grapes in Northern Europe precipitated an apparently permanent shift to beer-drinking.
The Domesday Book census of England in 1085-6 reported 42 vineyards, mostly owned by nobles to provide wine for their dining tables. By the end of the 14th century, a three degree Celsius decline in global temperatures was enough to wipe out wine production in England. Beer and ale became predominate for reasons of climate. In cold, wet weather, stored grain spoiled too readily to be kept in unprocessed form, so beer brewing gained vogue as a technologically efficient way of storing vulnerable grain for later consumption. And beer had another advantage. It could be brewed from barley, a short season crop.
The preference for wine in the everyday diet was preserved among the wealthy who could afford to import wine and among the population in general in Southern Europe, where climate did not become too cold for grape cultivation.
You see, contrary to what the “warm-mongers” suggest, life has mostly gotten better when temperatures have risen. Happily, it did get warmer after the Black Death. With a few instructive exceptions, it has mostly been warmer since 1500 than it was in the late Middle Ages, but not as warm as the Medieval Warm Period.
Though Al Gore and his pals have figured out how to profit spectacularly from his pet theories that burning hydro-carbon fuels releases too much atmospheric carbon, humans unfortunately have little or no capacity to regulate the earth’s thermostat by manipulating atmospheric carbon. This is important to bear in mind when you consider the investment consequences of another Little Ice Age.
Approximately 99.72% of the so-called “greenhouse effect” is due to natural causes — mostly water vapor and traces of other gases, which are not caused by human activity. Total human contributions to greenhouse gases account for only about 0.28% of the “greenhouse effect,” just a little more than a quarter of 1%. Man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) comprises only about 0.117% and other man-made sources, including methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide and other miscellaneous gases contribute another 0.163%.”
In other words, eliminating human activity altogether would have little impact on carbon levels in the atmosphere, and even less on climate change. Even if we wanted to, we could not up-regulate temperatures in the face of a deep solar chill by emitting more CO2. Of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enter earth’s atmosphere each year from all sources, only a little more than 3%, about 6 billion tons, are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in the earth’s oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants.
Further to that, at 368 parts per million, CO2 is only a trace element of earth’s atmosphere. It comprises less than 4/100ths of one percent of the total gasses present. Compared to former geologic times, earth’s current atmosphere has only a bare trace of CO2. In the Paleozoic Era, atmospheric CO2 was present in concentrations up to 20 times higher than current readings of 386 parts per million.
Unfortunately, if we needed to raise the earth’s temperature in order to save millions from starvation, we would have no idea how to do so. The only route forward would be to attempt to adjust to the celestial forces that govern the sun’s dynamo.
If you’ll permit me to rant and rave for a moment, the prospect of a coming Ice Age underscores the folly and the evil involved in Al Gore’s program of phony research into “Global Warming.” In recent decades, the U.S. government has wasted untold tens of billions on bogus climate research which amounted to little more than bribing scientists to add credibility to Al Gore’s semi-religious conviction that human activity is imperiling the planet. In a real climate crisis, almost all of the U.S. government’s “research” would be utterly useless, as we have been paying experts to come to bogus conclusions.
Unfortunately, it is all too plausible that our climate could rapidly revert to Ice Age conditions. For one thing, the earth has been in an Ice Age for most of the past 750,000 years. This suggests that more frequently than not, the sun fails to provide enough radiative energy to keep the earth from freezing.
Notwithstanding all the bellyaching about “Global Warming,” we are technically in an Ice Age now, as there are extensive glaciers covering most of Greenland and Antarctica, as well as other smaller glacial formations in Patagonia, on the South Island of New Zealand and at high elevations and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We have enjoyed an intermission from advancing glaciers, known as an “Interglacial period” during all of recorded history, but that is a short interlude in geological time.
The past temperate Interglacial periods like the current one, known as the “Holocene” interglacial, have tended to last for relatively short periods, of about 11,500 years. Our current Interglacial has persisted for about 11,400 years, which means it is due to end relatively soon. Unfortunately, based on the evidence that an Ice Age is the baseline climate of the earth, it is more probable than not that any major climate change would involve the world getting colder.
Furthermore, the evidence of cyclical patterns in the waxing and waning of Ice Ages also points to the possibility that we could rapidly revert to a period of glaciation. Dr. George Kukla, of Columbia University argues that variations in the earth’s orbit around the sun largely inform Ice Age cycles. He states: “I feel we’re on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind ice-age glaciation. The relationship is just too clear and consistent to allow reasonable doubt.” Dr. Kukla said. “It’s either that, or climate drives orbit, and that just doesn’t make sense.”
Some evidence suggests that the return to glaciation can happen as rapidly as one year. In 2008, German scientists reported that the last Ice Age 13,000 years ago took hold in just one year, more than ten times quicker than previously believed. Rather than a gradual cooling over a decade, the Ice Age rapidly plunged Europe into the deep freeze, the German Research Centre for Geosciences at Potsdam has said.
An abrupt shift to cold, stormy conditions plunged Europe almost instantly into an Ice Age during the Younger Dryas less than 13,000 years ago – a very recent period on a geological scale. Dr Achim Brauer, of the GFZ (GeoForschungs Zentrum) German Research Centre for Geosciences at Potsdam, and colleagues analyzed annual layers of sediments, called “varves”, from a German crater lake. Each varve records a single year, allowing annual climate records from the region to be reconstructed. From one year to the next, an Ice Age began.
Evidence of a dramatic fall off in sunspot activity suggests a serious risk of this happening again.
I know that politicians assure you that there is no such danger – because carbon dioxide emissions from human activity are purportedly poised to turn the earth into a hot house.
Unfortunately, this is a blatant lie, upon which you cannot depend to stay warm in winter. For that, you will need fuel. That is why one of the core contrarian plays in The Little Ice Portfolio is to purchase natural gas through the -First Trust ISE/Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG). This ETF buys individual natural gas producers, so it should give you broad coverage for an uptick in the demand for gas for heating, both directly and through greater demand for electricity.
Equally, we think that unequivocal evidence of a deep freeze will eventually sink in with even so benighted a group as the U.S. Congress, with the result that “greenhouse” limits on the use of coal are likely to be eased. Hence our recommendation of two Coal ETF’s: Van Eck Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) and PowerShares Global Coal Portfolio (NasdaqGM:PKOL). Note that the PowerShares is more diverse across countries, while the Market Vectors is more focused in the US.
As evidence accumulates that global warming has not transpired as predicted, Gore and his minions have shamelessly recast their campaign as one to combat “CLIMATE CHANGE.” Al doesn’t want to risk the billions he has at stake on the chance that people will look past all his “hot air” to focus on the thermostat and realize that we are already entering a “Little Ice Age.”
Global Warming? Ice Age? What’s the difference?
In case you missed it, Obama’s White House science czar, John Holdren, has predicted that 1 billion people will die in “carbon-dioxide induced famines” in a coming new Ice Age by 2020…
Talk about brazen “Double Think.” Holdren published two books in the 1970s in which he set out completely contradictory theories on the impact of CO2 on global cooling. Holdren and Ehrlich argued in their 1973 book “Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions” on page 198 that the main effect of carbon-dioxide-induced global warming “might be to speed up circulation patterns and to bring arctic cold farther south and Antarctic cold farther north.” Just how and why mixing hot and cold air under warming conditions could lead to an Ice Age is a matter that they cannot explain.
In “Ecoscience: Population, Resources and Environment”, last revised in 1977, Holdren together with co-authors Paul and Anne Ehrlich stated on page 687 that “a man-made warming trend might cancel out a natural cooling trend.”
Equivocating, contradicting himself, and making plainly ridiculous leaps without scientific basis, Holdren forecasts disaster, no matter what. He based his prediction on a theory that human emissions of carbon dioxide would produce a climate catastrophe in which global warming would cause global cooling with a consequent reduction in agricultural production resulting in widespread disaster. Got that?
It is key to answering the most important IQ test in history. It will determine whether the great majority of Americans is stupid enough to sign away what remains of the superior living standard we have enjoyed in the service of a global power grab designed to make Al Gore and his Wall Street buddies richer while millions are reduced to poverty under the weight of draconian carbon taxes.
Holdren is right about one thing, however. A return to Ice Age conditions, or even a marginal, “Little Ice Age” cooling would devastate food production. If the current plunge in solar activity as measured by sunspots and other indicia of solar radiation, leads to the same drop in global temperatures experienced in the 17th century, when growing seasons in Europe plunged, the world will have a serious challenge to feed itself.
Human population is now ten times higher than it was in 1700. Feeding all these mouths under “Little Ice Age” conditions difficulties no easy task. Food prices would soar, as food output in Europe, Canada and the United States plunges.
Note that the temperature gradient between winter and summer in the American grain belt averages about 59 degrees Fahrenheit. If winter temperatures persist erratically into spring, or return early before the harvest, the result could be a collapse of the growing season.
This is what happened during the last Dalton Minimum, in 1816, “the year without a summer,” when diminished sunspot activity, combined with volcanic pollution from the eruption of Mount Tambora to produce a sudden onset of Little Ice Age conditions.
The greatest effect of the cold was felt on the Northeastern U.S., New England, the
Canadian Maritimes, Newfoundland, and Northern Europe. In times of “normal” solar radiation, late spring and summer temperatures in the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada average (day and night) about 68–77 °F and rarely fall below 41 °F. Although there are occasionally May flurries, summer snow is an extreme rarity.
In May 1816, frost killed off most of the crops that had been planted, and two major June snowstorms devastated crops in eastern Canada and New England, causing many human deaths (and precipitating a mass migration out of New England. If you own property in the Northern part of the U.S. or in Canada that you intend to sell within the next few years, you might want to take a lesson from the past and try to sell it before all the potential buyers realize that the climate has taken a long-term turn for the worse).
While, obviously some crops were brought in at lower latitudes in 1816, grain prices skyrocketed eight-fold. The result was the last major subsistence crisis in the Western world, with malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and famine.
Europe, still recuperating from the Napoleonic Wars, suffered from acute food shortages. Food riots broke out in both the U.K. and France. Grain warehouses in many locations were looted. The violence was worst in Switzerland, where the government declared a national emergency to combat unrest precipitated by famine. A BBC documentary using figures compiled in Switzerland estimated that fatality rates in 1816 were twice those of average years.
The evidence that widespread unrest accompanied Little Ice Age conditions in the past in countries as well mannered as England, France and Switzerland is a strong hint of what you can expect in North America when temperatures plunge. Social unrest and the declaration of “states of emergency” would probably make it complicated to move to warmer locales. The government might even impose a “windfall profits taxes” on oil and natural gas companies.
You can be sure that politicians will seek to deflect public anger over a climate reversal.
They will pretend that the cause of the crisis lies in human activity, rather than in the dynamo of the sun, and the complicated patterns of changing orbits of the earth around the sun.
Another hint from “the year without a summer” comes from China, where the cold weather killed trees, rice crops and even water buffalo, especially in northern China. Unusually low temperatures in summer and fall devastated rice production in Yunnan province in the southwest, resulting in widespread famine. Fort Shuangcheng, now in Heilongjian province, reported fields disrupted by frost and conscripts deserting as a result. Summer snowfall was reported in various locations in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, in the south.
On this evidence, it is suggestive that China would probably be a big buyer in food markets at the outset of Little Ice Age conditions.
All this implies dramatic price escalation for basic food stuffs. For that reason, three food ETFs are included in the core contrarian Little Ice Age Portfolio: PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSE:DBA);Market Vectors Global Agribusiness (NYSE:MOO) and Elements Grain Total Return (NYSE:GRU).
If grain production in Canada, Europe and the U.S. fell short, what other countries could take up the slack? Answer: Not many.
Just about the only major agricultural producer that would not likely be devastated by “Little Ice Age” conditions is Brazil. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Brazil is already the world’s leading agricultural economy as measured by profitability. U.S. farmers currently grow more crops. But because of our crazy-quilt of farm subsidies, much of the U.S. farm output is unprofitable. In Little Ice Age conditions, Brazil could literally be the world’s breadbasket.
As you probably realize, the equator passes through Northern Brazil. The temperature gradient between winter and summer in Brazil is, on average, less than the difference between day-time and night-time temperatures.
In other words, if winter temperatures lasted into spring or arrived early in the autumn, there would be serious crop failures throughout the Midwestern United States and in other temperate latitudes. But late or early winters in equatorial Brazil would have little or no effect on growing seasons. Hence, my conclusion that Brazil is just about the only leading agro power where growing seasons would not be adversely effected by the return of a “Little Ice Age.” That being the case, the comparative attractiveness of Brazilian government debt and investment in Brazil in general would likely jump sharply as crops in North America, Europe and China failed.
Note, by the way, that we are up 47.53% for the year on the Brazilian government bonds recommended in January.
Equally, our spread, long the Brazilian stock market and short the Chinese market has been a big winner. In just a few months, we’re up 28% on Brazil and down just 11% on China.
Both these positions are excellent core holdings in the Little Ice Age portfolio.
Other than Brazil, Eastern Bolivia, Paraguay and parts of Argentina would probably become more attractive in comparative terms because the growing seasons there would not be wiped out by erratic cold. Some African countries could also pick up some slack in food production. Kenya lies close to the Equator. Zimbabwe was formerly a food-producing country. In a starving world, I would expect some drastic action to improve the productivity of Zimbabwean agriculture. Someone would make it worthwhile for Mrs. Mugabe to divest the stolen farms she has been mismanaging.
You could also expect to see the business of “hot house” farming get a boost. If food could no longer be grown outdoors in North America, there would be efforts, no doubt subsidized and screwed up by government, to bring farming indoors. Some of the empty factories and abandoned strip malls in Detroit and in the Northeast of the U.S. and southern Canada would no doubt be fitted out with artificial lighting and heated to a degree required to grow food. While there are a few firms piddling around in this area, I know of none that has developed sufficiently to be an attractive receptacle for your investment.
Note that we are just scratching the surface, brushing away a few ice cubes in establishing the contrarian Little Ice Portfolio. An adverse climatic shift implies a drastic drop in living standards, a climatic deflation, including a plunge in the sale of air conditioners, and a general fall in discretionary income.
The current depression has already wiped away a full decade of progress in industrial production. The “recovery” in production, such as it has been, has leveled off at a low-level plateau of activity that has wiped out the last 10 years of growth. As John Williams of “Shadow Government Statistics” notes, “Despite the near-term gains (as will tend to become evident as inventories are worked off in the months ahead), the series generally still is bottom-bouncing.”)
A Little Ice Age would mean a multi-decade plunge in real living standards, perhaps wiping out most of the progress since World War II. It would mean the final end of U.S. economic predominance, already long frayed, probably the death of the dollar, a big surge in gold, and a fall in demand for other non-essential commodities.
Another side effect might be to restore the reputation of genuine science, in preference to the Al Gore version of “political science” which seems in many respects to be a throw-back to the pre-Copernican medieval superstition that insisted upon making humans and the earth the center of the universe. But to my knowledge, while the Ptolemic astronomers insisted that the earth was the center of the universe, none of them ever insisted that human action could arbitrarily change the climate. In those days, that was the province of God.
And yes, Climate Change, in the form of a Little Ice Age, would grant Ms. Stewart’s (Christine Stewart, Minister of the Environment of Canada, 1997-1999) wish by bringing about “equality in the world.” There will be a lot of equality in subsistence poverty.
Best,
James Davidson
Portfolio Update
It’s been a tumultuous month.
Not only has the market showed signs of hitting a top, but now it’s beginning to turn south. We’re already beginning to see a little bit of the red hit our very own portfolio.
The biggest hits have been to our gold holdings. The MarketVectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for example, dropped from $49 to $41 per share. We are still up 14%.
Witswatersrand gold (WGR.TO) also took a hit, now we are up 87% instead of 100%.
Our Brazil holdings have all gone down a little with one exception: CCR Rodoviarias (CCRO3.SA). CCR pushed up from $31 to $35 a share. We are now up 14% on CCR. Honestly, I’m not sure why it pushed higher. CCR is selling new shares into the market and priced them at $19.12. This would typically push some investors away as shares become diluted. But it appears that didn’t happen with CCR – a bullish signal indeed.
Our short China and long Brazil spread has worked out quite admirably. We are down 5% on the China ETF (FXI) and up 15% on our Brazil ETF (EWZ). Looking forward, as the market gets beat down we expect to see our short position in China shine.
I want to take the time and remind you that the Strategic Investment portfolio is a long-term one. The market looks ripe for a fall at these levels. But the companies that I’ve highlighted for you over the past year are ones that will survive and thrive in any meltdown.
These are companies that are riding very strong trends that show no signs of slowing.
And so instead of looking at this sell-off as a painful exercise in money management, I want you to look at it as your final chance to get into fundamentally strong companies at dirt cheap valuations.
I’ll be with you every step of the way. And when the time is right to buy more, I’ll let you know.
Until then,
James Davidson
Dear Payout Trader,
Congratulations to everyone who got into today’s chunky payout of 29%.
If you recall, the bet was that RIMM would move higher after dropping 20% on news that was fundamentally good.
Sure enough, RIMM has steadily climbed higher ever since Oct 6th, when the recommendation was made.
I’m feeling so good about RIMM’s prospects that we could realistically get into more credit spreads based on this same idea. More details later.
Here’s a brief synopsis of the trade…
- The average price of the contract you wrote (RFYVM) was $1.37.
- The average price of the contract you bought as insurance (RFYVL) was $0.25.
- The net credit you received ($1.37 - $.25) was $1.12.
- The average payout received was $2,912 (based on $10,088 margin and 26 contracts).
- That’s 29% in just nine trading days!
This RIMM payout marks our twelfth straight win. Since inception, the portfolio is up 91%. Not bad for 18 months of “work”.
If you took part in the latest trade I’d love to know how you did. Send an e-mail intopayouttrader@contrarianresearch.com and let me know!
The Macro View
Over the past few day’s I’ve had a sick, yet interesting obsession.
I’ve been sitting in my office, looking at charts of real-time Forex late into the night.
And by late, I mean late 2-3 am.
The reason why I’ve been looking at these charts is twofold. First, I just want to learn how to time Forex better. Second, the stock market has been moving in tandem with the dollar for some time.
The pattern is that anytime the stock market rallies, the dollar drops. And if stocks drop, the dollar moves higher.
So if I get any indication of the dollar’s movement in the Forex market, I’ll have an idea where the stock market will go in the weeks ahead.
Lately, I’ve been paying attention to three important currency crosses. These happen to make up 50% of the dollar index. So their direction should be a harbinger of things to come.
The first cross I’ve been watching is the Euro vs the Dollar (EUR/USD). This cross is around 1.489 as we speak and for the past two days, it’s been trying to get above 1.50. If the EUR/USD breaks above 1.50, it’s likely that the dollar will weaken significantly more (at least against the Euro).
The second cross I’ve been paying attention to is the USD/CAD (Canadian), which is around 1.0360. Over the past few days, the CAD has been trying to hit the 1 mark. That would mean that the Canadian dollar had hit parity with the US dollar. And it’s likely that after that target has been reached, that the dollar will weaken further against the CAD.
And the last cross I’ve kept my eyes on is the USD/JPY (Japanese Yen). This cross sits at 90.97. But over the last few days it had been trying to get under a major double bottom it had formed around 87.50. If we see this cross drop past that level, the dollar will again weaken substantially.
These three crosses all tell me the same thing. The dollar is near important support levels. And if those support levels are breached in the next week, the dollar should keep dropping.
This lends more weight to the idea that the bull run in stocks hasn’t run out of steam yet.
Over the next two weeks we should see selling pressure build up. But I’d use any sell-off to buy into new positions.
And after the next sell-off, we should look to get into another bullish credit spread on RIMM. This time, we should target the $70 level as that’s where the premiums should be built in.
Until next week,
Charlie
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Dear Strategic Investment Reader,
If there’s one thing I really like, it’s collecting a big, fat gain.
Today, that’s exactly what you can do.
Action to Take: Immediately sell half of your shares of Witwatersrand Consol Gold (Toronto:WGR.To) and collect a tidy 100% gain.
Be sure to let James and I know how you did by writing into strategicinvestment@contrarianresearch.com
While we both feel that gold prices should pusher higher from here, we think it’s extremely prudent for you to take some risk off the table.
Now that you’ve made 100%, you’re playing with the house’s money.
Take care,
Charles Delvalle
Co-Editor and Investment Analyst,
Strategic Investment
We meant to send this update this morning, but when we got up the price of gold had hit a new all-time high. So we have decided to put a trade in to allow you to capitalize on gold’s steady march higher.
Action to take: Immediately buy the GLD 92 December Call option (GLDLN) for no more than $11.30 per contract (currently at $11.00). We expect gold prices to hit $1,100 or higher an ounce. If gold prices collapse under $1,000, we will exit our position.
Action to take: Immediately buy the GLD 92 December Call option (GLDLN) for no more than $11.30 per contract (currently at $11.00). Our stop-loss will be the $1,000 mark for gold. If gold prices collapse under $1,000 we will exit our position.
Portfolio Update
Flotek (FTK) has recovered some of its losses. We were down 6% last week and this week we are down 3%.
But let me tell you, it’s starting to get cold where I’m at in Oregon. We’ve already started to use our gas heater to keep things cozy. And most people I talk too up here are also turning up the gas heater.
This is going to be one of the colder winters we’ve had here in this part of Oregon. And we can thank the 0.74 degree of cooling the earth has experienced in the last few years.
Right now, natural gas prices are still at remarkable lows. If you haven’t gotten into this position yet, you should. Gas is going to be used more and that increased demand can only push prices higher than where they are today.
We’ve also made a few changes to the Strategic Incomeportfolio which I wanted to point out to you today.
All of these changes had to do with the “Buy up to” prices which we list.
Money4Gold (MFGD) we lowered the “buy up to” price to 0.25 from 0.60. Reason being, these shares are extremely cheap right now and you should take advantage of them immediately.
MFGD announced preliminary earnings this morning. For the third quarter, they have realized revenues of $6 million. Compare this to the second quarter, which saw revenues of $1.49 million and you’ll notice there’s been tremendous growth.
The CEO Douglas Feirstein recently said “Following the successful integration of Money4Gold and My Gold Envelope, we have accelerated our ad buying efforts strategically focusing on our most profitable media channels. The result has been a tremendous success for our Company as gross gold collected per week is now consistently exceeding $1 million. As we enter the fourth quarter, we will continue to strategically increase our marketing expenses, enter new international markets and leverage our growing advertising budget to attain greater purchasing power positively impacting margins.”
If you haven’t gotten into MFGD yet, than you have the perfect shot to take advantage of these low prices.
Banco Itau (ITUB) has shown nothing but strength over the past two months. Shares have steadily climbed 28% since our initial purchase in May. We think the prospects for this bank are better than ever. So we’ve increased our “buy up to” price to $23 from $20 a share.
Prospect Capital Corp (PSEC) has also given us great returns over the short-term. We’ve gone ahead and raised our “buy up to” price to $13 a share, from $11.
Our short China and buy Brazil play has done quite nicely over the past month. We are down 2% on our China short (FXI) and up 15% on our Brazil long play (EWZ). We’ve added price targets to both of them. You can keep shorting the FXI down to $38 per share. And you can keep buying EWZ up to $70 per share.
That’s it for now. But stay tuned to your inbox for a potential gold or dollar play which could come as soon as this week.
Take care,
Charles Delvalle
Co-editor,
Crisis Strategy Alert
Payout Trader Credit Spread Alert
***Please place these orders IMMEDIATELY***
***Do NOT Place Market Orders***
Sell-to-open the RIMM 65 October Put option (RFYVM) for no less than $1.20 per contract (currently trading at $1.37).
Buy-to-open the RIMM 60 October Put option (RFYVL) for no more than $0.35 per contract (currently trading at $0.25).
Your total net credit should be $1.12 for a return of about 29%.
If the option prices are out of range and you do not get filled today, then wait for the next Payout Play.
Trade Drivers
Sometimes a company reports good earnings and gets slammed anyways. That’s the predicament with Research in Motion (RIMM). Even though sales grew 37% to $3.53 billion last quarter, RIMM failed to excite analysts who expected sales at $3.62 billion.
So RIMM didn’t grow as rapidly as expected. But that doesn’t mean RIMM’s doing poorly. It certainly doesn’t mean that it deserved a 20% haircut in share prices, either.
RIMM still has great margins, at 44.1% (this came in at the high end of its forecast). It also expects sales to grow another 37-47% in the upcoming quarter.
I believe it. That’s because this month RIMM releases its new touch screen smart phone, the Storm 2. This should give them a nice boost in sales.
Technically, we see that after RIMM missed earnings the share price opened up a huge gap between 72 – 82. In my experience, after a gap opens up it goes on to get “filled”. What that means is that buyers should come in over the next few weeks and push RIMM’s price up to the top of the gap - in this case 82.
Also note that RIMM is oversold according to the Slow Stochastic and RSI oscillators. This indicates that selling should be getting exhausted and that buyers should start pushing shares higher again.
Another indication of exhausted selling is the volume over the last two weeks. It’s been shrinking on the down days. After hitting a peak of over 88.7 million shares traded on Sept 25th, volume dropped to 47 million… 27 million… and then 23 million.
Sellers are clearly becoming exhausted. And over the next two weeks we’re likely to see a retracement of the 20% drop that RIMM suffered in such a short amount of time.
Out stop – loss point is around 65. I chose 65 for two reasons. First, it’s the strike price of the option we sold. Second, it’s the lows that RIMM hit just this past July. If RIMM breaks under this important support, we’ll clear out of our positions.
We’ll keep a close eye on RIMM over the next two weeks to make sure it doesn’t break under 65. So long as that doesn’t happen, you should receive a return of 18% which will settle on Friday, October 16th.
Take care,
Charles
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We meant to send this update this morning, but when we got up the price of gold had hit a new all-time high. So we have decided to put a trade in to allow you to capitalize on gold’s steady march higher.
Action to take: Immediately buy the GLD 92 December Call option (GLDLN) for no more than $11.50 per contract (currently at $11.10). We expect gold prices to hit $1,100 or higher an ounce. If gold prices collapse under $1,000, we will exit our position.
Dear CSA Reader,
Did you know that the latest stock market rally started nearly at the exact same time that the Fed began Quantitative Easing?
The rally started on March 9th. The Fed started buying $300 billion in treasuries and $1.25 trillion in mortgage backed securities a week later. The rally has continued… and so has the Fed’s QE program.
All you have to do is leverage $300 billion by ten times… and you have liquidity of $3 trillion entering the market. That’d be enough to push up stock prices, wouldn’t you say?
How about if we leverage $1.25 trillion by ten times? Then we see an additional $12.5 trillion entering the market. That’d be enough to boost lending enough to level out home prices, right? You betcha.
This suits the banks because higher stock prices can help prop up a bank’s asset prices – making its situation look less dire on paper. And it suits the Administration because higher stock prices provide the illusion of recovery. And this illusion is far easier to achieve by “monetizing” the market than it is to repair all the broken balance sheets that stand in the way of a genuine recovery.
This suits the Fed, too, because it increases confidence and makes it less likely that the Fed will inject more capital into banks. More importantly, it buys time.
But 12 days ago that all started to change.
The Fed finished buying $300 billion worth of treasuries at the end of last month. All that’s left now is to finish buying the mortgage backed securities and then the QE program will end. And fed members have shown no indication that they want to expand it.
Recently, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh said…
- If the economy were to turn up smartly and durably, policy might need to be unwound with the resolve equal to that in the accommodation phase. That is, the speed and force of the action ahead may bear some corresponding symmetry to the path that preceded it.
If our theory of QE pumping up the stock market is right, then as QE ends, the stock market should lose its “pump”. Sure enough, from Sept 23 to just two days ago, the S&P had lost 5.1%.
It’s not just James and I who feel this way. Maybe you do too. After all, everybody knows the government is blatantly trying to “fix” the stock market.
In a recent article from ZeroHedge, they wrote…
- The “monetization liquidity” fueling the rally comes from the $300B in long-dates Treasuries announced back in March as part of the Fed’s QE. The POMOs executing the injection have been covered extensively, and the end result is primary dealers end up sitting on the cash. Only about $7B (about 2.3%) of the original $300B remain to be injected. Without this liquidity (which correlates very well with the S&P’s performance since spring), the rally loses its legs and momentum switches to the downside.
Their conclusion is that we’re about to see another big market drop. But this isn’t set in stone. Remember, the Fed is also pumping in $1.25 trillion via mortgage bond buybacks. And these buybacks will continue until early next year.
So while the market may have less cash moving forward, liquidity is by no means exhausted. We could see this rally continue at a slower rate.
In the News…
Every week James sends me ten to twenty different articles (from his iPhone, of course). Most of these articles come from Bloomberg. And they always relate to our open positions and thoughts on the market.
So, I thought it would be great if I started covering these articles here for you every week. That way you’re looking at what we look at… and understanding why we feel the way we do about the markets.
The first article is very telling. It covers how bad loan portfolios really are at the nation’s banks. From Bloomberg…
- Units of Frontier Financial Corp.,Towne Bancorp Inc. and Steel Partners Holdings LP are among 26 firms with more than one-fifth of their loans 90 days overdue or not accruing interest as of June 30 — a level of distress almost five times the national average — according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data compiled for Bloomberg News by SNL Financial, a bank research firm. Three reported almost half of their loans weren’t being paid.
While regulators may not force firms on the list to close, requiring them to raise capital and curb loans may impede recovery in Florida, Illinois and seven other states. The banks are among the most vulnerable of a larger group of lenders whose failures the FDIC said could cost $100 billion by 2013.
This article actually shows you why we’ll have a choppy economic recovery. Because the only way to fix the banks is to do things that would “impede” recovery. Sometimes a bank can’t make any more loans until it deleverages or acquires more assets. Other times a bank must fail outright, causing a deflationary chain of events to happen (like a collapse in available credit).
These things won’t happen all at once though. It will happen in dribs and drabs. And so the effects will be spread out over time and region.
And don’t forget that we have a credit-based economy. When banks fail and mortgages go into foreclosure, credit is extinguished and the money supply falls.
This segues nicely into our second article, which is about how Bernanke may have to keep interest rates low to fight off deflation.
From Bloomberg…
- The U.S. faces the possibility of deflation for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, a threat that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero through next year.
Executives at Kroger Co., the largest U.S. supermarket chain, blamed deflation for a 7 percent drop in earnings in the second quarter, while falling prices for food, gasoline, and electronics left August sales unchanged at Costco Wholesale Corp. A sustained price drop might set off a chain reaction in which lower profits force employers to pare wages and payrolls. That would erode consumer demand, exacerbating wage cuts and firings.
Such a spiral led to Japan’s “lost decade” of slow economic growth in the 1990s. A more vicious version in the U.S. helped create the Great Depression six decades earlier. Bond investors are forecasting retreating consumer prices, as shown by the yield they demand to hold a one-year bond versus a similar inflation-protected bond.
“Deflation is definitely a threat right now,” Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, 66, a professor at Columbia University in New York, said in a Sept. 22 interview. “The combination of the deflation threat and the sluggish recovery should keep the Fed on hold for quite a while.”
Consumer prices are experiencing deflation, with the consumer price index sliding for six straight months from year- earlier levels, the longest stretch of declines since a 12-month drop from September 1954 to August 1955, according to the Labor Department.
So far, the core consumer-price index, which excludes food and energy, is facing disinflation, a slowing in the pace of increase. The core index rose 1.4 percent in August from a year earlier, down from 2.5 percent in September 2008.
I suggest you read the whole article here .
It will show you how regardless of the Feds unprecedented action, wages, credit lines, and home prices are still falling.
The reality is that Deflation is harder to fight off then Ben imagined. He once wrote about how the Fed could defeat deflation by dropping cash from helicopters.
As Ben sleeps at night, we can only imagine that he dreams of dropping thick $100 bills from helicopters in order to stop deflation. Because right now, we’re seeing the strongest deflationary forces since the Great Depression.
The third article covers how job losses are 824,000 WORSE than expected over the last year. From Bloomberg…
- Payrolls were forecast to drop 175,000 in September after a 216,000 decline initially reported for August, according to the median of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 260,000 to 100,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.8 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.6 percent to 9.9 percent.
The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time.
The projected decrease was three times larger than the historical average, the Labor Department said. Most of the drop occurred in the first quarter of this year, probably due to an increase in business closings, the government said.
That’s the biggest decline in jobs since the Great Depression. Though, not in percentage terms (we have a lot more workers today than we did back then). When the full revisions are tallied and brought forward, the additional 824,000 jobs lost since January will probably equate to 2,000,000 additional job losses now.
Still, U-6 unemployment (which counts discouraged and some part-time workers) came in at 17% for September. That’s worse than the double-dip recessions of the 1980’s. And if unemployment continues to climb until late next year, as even Ben Bernanke imagines it will, than we could see U-6 hit Great Depression levels of 25% + unemployment.
Don’t be fooled; things aren’t getting better. They’re just getting worse more slowly.
Upcoming Plays…
Over the past few weeks I’ve made a few passing mentions about how we would like to play gold. Since then, Gold has done real well at holding the $1,000 price level.
In fact, this weekly alert was going to go out earlier this morning. But then gold hit a new record price. Last I checked, it was at $1,040.20 an ounce.
And there’s a litany of reasons why it’s moving higher.
From seasonality thanks to Indian wedding demand… to a shrinking buck… and even good old fashioned “catastrophe insurance”.
Not only has the price of gold held the $1,000 mark pretty decently, but it never dropped under the blue support line on the chart below.
Now that gold has hit a record price, we are in a prime position to ride the breakout higher.
What I’ve done is chosen an option with a December expiration. That way we have time to let gold move higher. I also chose an option that was pretty deep in the money. Reason being, gold can be volatile. The deeper in the money the option is, the better our downside protection becomes.
If gold breaches past $1,100 an ounce over the next few weeks, we could see the price on this sucker double.
Action to take: Immediately buy the GLD 92 December Call option (GLDLN) for no more than $11.50 per contract (currently at $11.10). Our stop-loss will be the $1,000 mark for gold. If gold prices collapse under $1,000 we will exit our position.
Portfolio Update
Flotek (FTK) has recovered some of its losses. We were down 6% last week and this week we are down 3%.
But let me tell you, it’s starting to get cold where I’m at in Oregon. We’ve already started to use our gas heater to keep things cozy. And most people I talk too up here are also turning up the gas heater.
This is going to be one of the colder winters we’ve had here in this part of Oregon. And we can thank the 0.74 degree of cooling the earth has experienced in the last few years.
Right now, natural gas prices are still at remarkable lows. If you haven’t gotten into this position yet, you should. Gas is going to be used more and that increased demand can only push prices higher than where they are today.
We’ve also made a few changes to the Strategic Incomeportfolio which I wanted to point out to you today.
All of these changes had to do with the “Buy up to” prices which we list.
Money4Gold (MFGD) we lowered the “buy up to” price to 0.25 from 0.60. Reason being, these shares are extremely cheap right now and you should take advantage of them immediately.
MFGD announced preliminary earnings this morning. For the third quarter, they have realized revenues of $6 million. Compare this to the second quarter, which saw revenues of $1.49 million and you’ll notice there’s been tremendous growth.
The CEO Douglas Feirstein recently said “Following the successful integration of Money4Gold and My Gold Envelope, we have accelerated our ad buying efforts strategically focusing on our most profitable media channels. The result has been a tremendous success for our Company as gross gold collected per week is now consistently exceeding $1 million. As we enter the fourth quarter, we will continue to strategically increase our marketing expenses, enter new international markets and leverage our growing advertising budget to attain greater purchasing power positively impacting margins.”
If you haven’t gotten into MFGD yet, than you have the perfect shot to take advantage of these low prices.
Banco Itau (ITUB) has shown nothing but strength over the past two months. Shares have steadily climbed 28% since our initial purchase in May. We think the prospects for this bank are better than ever. So we’ve increased our “buy up to” price to $23 from $20 a share.
Prospect Capital Corp (PSEC) has also given us great returns over the short-term. We’ve gone ahead and raised our “buy up to” price to $13 a share, from $11.
Our short China and buy Brazil play has done quite nicely over the past month. We are down 2% on our China short (FXI) and up 15% on our Brazil long play (EWZ). We’ve added price targets to both of them. You can keep shorting the FXI down to $38 per share. And you can keep buying EWZ up to $70 per share.
That’s it for now. But stay tuned to your inbox for a potential gold or dollar play which could come as soon as this week.
Take care,
Charles Delvalle
Co-editor,
Crisis Strategy Alert